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Nour El Tayeb v Tesni Murphy (Fri 08 Sep 2017)

Match won by Nour El Tayeb. Result: 11-7,7-11,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 9,645, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,960, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Nour El Tayeb to win as she is currently playing 8% better than Tesni Murphy.

Nour El Tayeb won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Tayeb played 35% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Tayeb actually played at a level of 10,782 and Tesni Murphy at a level of 8,015. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb changes to +11% and Tesni Murphy changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb becomes +3.5% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Tayeb: 85%, Tesni Murphy: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Tayeb: 76%, Tesni Murphy: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 9,860, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,723, level confidence: 83%.