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Tesni Murphy v Dipika Pallikal Karthik (Thu 07 Sep 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 10-12,11-9,11-4,9-11,11-3.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,934, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dipika Pallikal Karthik: 8,244, level confidence: 68%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 8% better than Dipika Pallikal Karthik.

Tesni Murphy won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 16% better than Dipika Pallikal Karthik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 9,237 and Dipika Pallikal Karthik at a level of 7,974. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +2.8% and Dipika Pallikal Karthik changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +1.4% and for Dipika Pallikal Karthik becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 89%, Dipika Pallikal Karthik: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 86%, Dipika Pallikal Karthik: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,959, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Dipika Pallikal Karthik: 8,154, level confidence: 80%.