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Nick Dyer v Dallas Hayvice (Thu 05 Oct 2017)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,026, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dallas Hayvice: 4,459, level confidence: 59%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Dallas Hayvice.

Nick Dyer won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 83% better than Dallas Hayvice in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Dyer actually played at a level of 7,019 and Dallas Hayvice at a level of 3,828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to +10.8% and Dallas Hayvice changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes +3.8% and for Dallas Hayvice becomes -5%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nick Dyer is +2.7% and for Dallas Hayvice is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 87%, Dallas Hayvice: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 75%, Dallas Hayvice: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 6,181, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Dallas Hayvice: 4,363, level confidence: 66%.