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Sam Weeds v David Haley (Tue 03 Oct 2017)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 6-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Sam Weeds: 4,763, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Haley: 12,020, level confidence: 68%.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing 152% better than Sam Weeds.

David Haley won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 74% better than Sam Weeds in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Haley was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,900 and 12,020 without affecting his level.

In this case, David Haley played at level 8,978 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Haley would normally have been playing at level 9,745 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Weeds played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to 0% and Sam Weeds changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes 0% and for Sam Weeds becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 82%, Sam Weeds: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 68%, Sam Weeds: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Weeds: 4,862, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for David Haley: 12,002, level confidence: 68%.