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Srikar Mummidi v Joe Rhys-Curtis (Tue 03 Oct 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,269, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Rhys-Curtis: 3,717, level confidence: 59%.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Joe Rhys-Curtis.

Srikar Mummidi won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 154% better than Joe Rhys-Curtis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of 7,051 and Joe Rhys-Curtis at a level of 2,778. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +21% and Joe Rhys-Curtis changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +6.5% and for Joe Rhys-Curtis becomes -9.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joe Rhys-Curtis is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 89%, Joe Rhys-Curtis: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 67%, Joe Rhys-Curtis: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,604, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Joe Rhys-Curtis: 3,552, level confidence: 58%.