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Dave Davies v Gareth Arthur (Tue 03 Oct 2017)

Match won by Dave Davies. Result: 11-2,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Dave Davies: 4,613, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Gareth Arthur: 3,675, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Dave Davies to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Gareth Arthur.

Dave Davies won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Davies played 94% better than Gareth Arthur in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Davies actually played at a level of 5,737 and Gareth Arthur at a level of 2,955. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Davies changes to +21% and Gareth Arthur changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Davies becomes +7% and for Gareth Arthur becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gareth Arthur is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Davies: 81%, Gareth Arthur: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Davies: 65%, Gareth Arthur: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Davies: 4,927, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Gareth Arthur: 3,495, level confidence: 68%.