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George Thomas v Nick Dyer (Sun 01 Oct 2017)

Match won by George Thomas. Result: 11-3,11-9,9-11,11-6.

Starting level for George Thomas: 6,343, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,085, level confidence: 64%.
George Thomas to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Nick Dyer.

George Thomas won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Thomas played 32% better than Nick Dyer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Thomas actually played at a level of 7,125 and Nick Dyer at a level of 5,417. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Thomas changes to +12% and Nick Dyer changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Thomas becomes +4.1% and for Nick Dyer becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Thomas: 76%, Nick Dyer: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Thomas: 67%, Nick Dyer: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Thomas: 6,591, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,857, level confidence: 71%.