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Matt O'Conner v David Spinks (Thu 28 Sep 2017)

Match won by Matt O'Conner. Result: 6-11,11-3,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Matt O'Conner: 5,078, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for David Spinks: 4,101, level confidence: 67%.
Matt O'Conner to win as he is currently playing 24% better than David Spinks.

Matt O'Conner won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt O'Conner played 40% better than David Spinks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt O'Conner actually played at a level of 5,394 and David Spinks at a level of 3,861. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner changes to +5.6% and David Spinks changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner becomes +2.5% and for David Spinks becomes -0.5%.

Given Matt O'Conner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Matt O'Conner is +1.9% and for David Spinks is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt O'Conner: 32%, David Spinks: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt O'Conner: 30%, David Spinks: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt O'Conner: 5,165, level confidence: 30%.
Final level for David Spinks: 4,080, level confidence: 77%.