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Matthew Murphy v Nick Dyer (Thu 28 Sep 2017)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 11-8,5-11,3-11,8-11.

Starting level for Matthew Murphy: 2,612, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,088, level confidence: 65%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Matthew Murphy.

Nick Dyer won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 34% better than Matthew Murphy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Dyer was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,048 and 6,088 without affecting his level.

As Nick Dyer has played below his allowed range at 3,762, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Dyer would normally have been playing at level 5,078 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to -4.9% and Matthew Murphy changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes -2.2% and for Matthew Murphy becomes +5.1%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nick Dyer is -1.6% and for Matthew Murphy is +3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 80%, Matthew Murphy: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 61%, Matthew Murphy: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Murphy: 2,707, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,984, level confidence: 61%.