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Liam Eason v David Haley (Thu 21 Sep 2017)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 4-11,9-11,1-11.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 11,517, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Haley: 10,732, level confidence: 68%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 7% better than David Haley.

David Haley won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 136% better than Liam Eason in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of 17,069 and Liam Eason at a level of 7,241. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +57% and Liam Eason changes to -47%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +12.5% and for Liam Eason becomes -10.7%.

Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for David Haley is +7.9% and for Liam Eason is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Eason is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 82%, Liam Eason: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 52%, Liam Eason: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 10,952, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for David Haley: 11,556, level confidence: 52%.