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Chris Hill v Tesni Murphy (Thu 14 Sep 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 1-11,3-11,12-14.

Starting level for Chris Hill: 3,790, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,723, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 130% better than Chris Hill.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 125% better than Chris Hill in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 5,857 and 8,723 without affecting her level.

In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 8,528 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Chris Hill is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 90%, Chris Hill: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 89%, Chris Hill: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hill: 3,784, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,710, level confidence: 89%.