Phil Thomas v Nick Dyer (Thu 14 Sep 2017)
Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 4-11,9-11,1-11.
Starting level for
Phil Thomas:
3,228, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for
Nick Dyer:
5,802, level confidence: 42%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing
80% better than Phil Thomas.
Nick Dyer won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played
136% better than Phil Thomas in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Dyer actually played at a level of
6,644 and Phil Thomas at a level of
2,819. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.6% and 10.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to +10.6% and Phil Thomas changes to -10.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes +3.8% and for Phil Thomas becomes -4.4%.
Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nick Dyer is +2.7% and for Phil Thomas is -3.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 65%, Phil Thomas: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 57%, Phil Thomas: 57%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Phil Thomas:
3,120, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Nick Dyer:
5,952, level confidence: 57%.