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David Haley v Sam Weeds (Thu 14 Sep 2017)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-0.

Starting level for David Haley: 10,742, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Sam Weeds: 5,123, level confidence: 43%.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Sam Weeds.

David Haley won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 136% better than Sam Weeds in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of 11,389 and Sam Weeds at a level of 4,832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +3.2% and Sam Weeds changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +1.5% and for Sam Weeds becomes -2.1%.

Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Given Sam Weeds's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for David Haley is +1% and for Sam Weeds is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 74%, Sam Weeds: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 70%, Sam Weeds: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Haley: 10,829, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Sam Weeds: 5,037, level confidence: 62%.