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Dave Davies v Carlton Chivers (Tue 12 Sep 2017)

Match won by Dave Davies. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Dave Davies: 4,324, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Carlton Chivers: 1,614, level confidence: 46%.
Dave Davies to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Carlton Chivers.

Dave Davies won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Davies played 120% better than Carlton Chivers in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dave Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,561 and 4,324 without affecting his level.

In this case, Dave Davies played at level 3,551 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Carlton Chivers is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Davies: 66%, Carlton Chivers: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Davies: 60%, Carlton Chivers: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Davies: 4,318, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Carlton Chivers: 1,612, level confidence: 61%.