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Lewis Poole v Srikar Mummidi (Sun 10 Sep 2017)

Match won by Lewis Poole. Result: 11-5,15-13,11-5.

Starting level for Lewis Poole: 6,766, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,220, level confidence: 64%.
Lewis Poole to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Lewis Poole won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Poole played 61% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Poole actually played at a level of 7,538 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 4,686. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Poole changes to +8.4% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Poole becomes +3.1% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Junior Open 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Poole: 87%, Srikar Mummidi: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Poole: 78%, Srikar Mummidi: 72%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Poole: 6,990, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,128, level confidence: 72%.