SquashLevels calculations
Tesni Murphy v Jenny Peng (Tue 29 Aug 2017)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
9,308, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Jenny Peng:
1,169, level confidence: 37%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
696% better than Jenny Peng.
Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
313% better than Jenny Peng in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 54%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,948 and 9,308 without affecting her level.
In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 4,822 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jenny Peng is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 69%, Jenny Peng: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 49%, Jenny Peng: 44%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
9,308, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Jenny Peng:
1,169, level confidence: 44%.