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Elliot Brookes-Parry v Rachel Chadwick (Thu 06 Apr 2017)

Match won by Elliot Brookes-Parry. Result: 11-2,11-4,10-12,8-11,11-4.

Starting level for Elliot Brookes-Parry: 6,550, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rachel Chadwick: 5,155, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Elliot Brookes-Parry to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Rachel Chadwick.

Elliot Brookes-Parry won 60% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliot Brookes-Parry played 21% better than Rachel Chadwick in this match.

As Elliot Brookes-Parry has played below his allowed range at 6,261, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Elliot Brookes-Parry would normally have been playing at level 6,427 (based on typical behaviour), Rachel Chadwick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliot Brookes-Parry changes to 0% and Rachel Chadwick changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliot Brookes-Parry becomes -0.1% and for Rachel Chadwick becomes +0.7%.

Given Elliot Brookes-Parry's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.2% has been applied to his level change.

Given Rachel Chadwick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Elliot Brookes-Parry is 0% and for Rachel Chadwick is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliot Brookes-Parry: 84%, Rachel Chadwick: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliot Brookes-Parry: 82%, Rachel Chadwick: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliot Brookes-Parry: 6,534, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Rachel Chadwick: 5,175, level confidence: 84%.